Will the WB6 be ready for the EU in 2025?

The Western Balkan countries (WB6 – Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Kosovo*) have been standing in line for the EU accession since at least 2003 Thessaloniki forum. In the meantime, these countries have put euro integration as one of their highest political goals. Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania obtained the candidate status, while Kosovo* and Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered as potential candidates.

The recent enlargement strategy of the European Commission provides a perspective, giving a probable enlargement date for the WB6 countries as 2025. However, this would mean that these countries have just a couple of years to implement reforms that will enable them to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria and put to practice the European common legal framework. Is this date overly optimistic?

GDP PPP per capita of selected countries in 2025, in international 2011 USD

We see that the WB6 countries will in 2025 still be far behind the income of the EU countries. However, this may not be an obstacle to their accession, since other countries that joined the EU in 2004/2007/2013 also were far below the contemporary EU income level. We should, therefore, compare this projected 2025 GDP with the GDP of these countries when they joined the EU.

GDP PPP per capita of selected countries, in international 2011 USD, in their EU accession year

The data show that the WB6 will be significantly behind the transition countries that joined the EU in previous enlargements – their GDP will be just 0.38 of the EU average in the PPP terms. This level of income among the recorded only in the case of Romania, while other countries were significantly closer to the EU average, usually at 50% or much higher.

This leads to a conclusion that the 2025 accession date is very optimistic, and that it will be very hard, if not impossible to achieve it, at least for some WB6 countries. In order at least to stay in the race and try to accomplish this feat, the necessary reforms that would improve the rule of law and business climate in the WB6 countries should be accelerated. In order this to materialize, the EU actor should stop turning the blind eye on political regimes in the region that crack on the media freedom, rule of law and political opposition.

Check the Freedom Barometer ranking for 2017 of the following Western Balkans countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,  FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia.